How Not to Predict Stock Performance

Google hasn’t had a great week on the stock market so far, but it isn’t often that you get to use the words “Google stock” and “kick ’em while they’re down” in the same sentence, so…

I like my own little subtle “inside jokes” a bit too much sometimes. If you’re sharp-eyed you’ll have noticed that on the left-hand margin, down a ways, is an RSS feed featuring the latest news stories which include the phrase, “the next Google.” Yes, I use Google News itself to drive the RSS feed, ha ha.

GOOG will bounce back of course, and I try not to tweak other companies too much, particularly ones I respect. Along with Google, that would include Adobe; one comment to a post last week (with a street-cred “” email address) felt I gave Adobe an undeserved hard time while discussing Microsoft’s Silverlight.  And in Google’s case, sometimes the stars align and I can’t help myself.

But to show that it’s not based on my current employment, I went back and found one of the earliest blog posts I ever wrote – on my old now-defunct blog on the “top secret” network of JWICS, within the Intelligence Community’s Intelink family of Web 2.0 services.  I have now retyped that particular blogpost here within this blog, filed under the appropriate date, just to show where my thinking was going back then, before I ever thought about working for Microsoft. 

My post then was driven by a desire to write a controversial blog entry; at the time, our IC blogs were brand new, and there were perhaps a half-dozen active bloggers. I was tweaking buddies like C.J. and Randy and John in the Intelink offices, who had created their blogs and were evangelizing their use, but were not actively writing every day, or even every week!

My intention of sparking interest in the blogs worked, at least.  If you have a TS/SCI clearance and can get access to Intelink(TS), you can go back and read not only those early blog entries, but the heated comments which were left in response to my early post about Google. They weren’t that different from what the response would be on Al Gore’s internet (“Google innovates, Microsoft copies”), since the passions and preferences hold true among the intelligence community’s knowledge workers just as they do on the outside. 

Funny thing, though, about my comments about the stock price: the day I posted my cheeky “Short Google” advice, the stock was at $385.  Within two weeks it was above 400, but in three months it had dropped back down to 330, and I felt vindicated.

Today, it is down heftily from its high above $740, but unless you shorted and then got out at 330, in the long run you’d have blown your entire investment in my shorting exercise back in 2005. 

Investor beware!  With my blog you get the quality of advice you pay for 🙂

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2 Responses

  1. yo get over it goog ROX


  2. Hi Lewis – your pals at the Merc looked at Google with a skeptical eye today also –

    when are you out here next? Up too late reading political blogs…


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